Latest Weekly Briefing

Burnham spent Friday taking questions on Reddit. That is apparently how you audition for Number 10 now.

More than 2,000 questions came in; he picked the ones he fancied. Two lines mattered. No early general election. And the triple lock stays: “it is important that the commitment in the manifesto stands.” Fine words, delivered two days after Starmer handed him a Defence Investment Plan with a £4.7bn hole in it. The Treasury’s own line is that the gap gets sorted in “the next budget” — which will not be Starmer’s. Burnham had asked for the release to be delayed so he could deal with it himself. He found out the actual number the same day the rest of us did. That is not a parting gift. It is a parting shot.

Mortgage approvals fell 15% in May, while broad money growth rose from 4.6% to 4.8%. Those two figures point in different directions. Housing is slowing sharply, while the amount of money in the wider economy is growing faster. The Bank’s inflation-targeting framework pays remarkably little attention to that distinction.

The business surveys were weak. Services slipped into contraction, with the PMI falling to 48.8, while the wider composite index dropped to 49.3 — its weakest reading since April 2025. In plain English: the private economy is losing momentum.

Andrew Bailey used his Sintra remarks to push back against early rate cuts, even as he acknowledged the economy is softening. Gilts sold off. The ten-year yield rose to 4.80%; the thirty-year to 5.48%.

So the next leader inherits weaker growth, expensive borrowing, a still-disrupted Strait of Hormuz despite falling oil prices, and a live US threat of 100% tariffs over Britain’s £700m-a-year digital services tax.

GBTT passed 10,500 followers on X — we said 10,000 by year end and got there six months early. Thank you! We’ve also added a money tracker to the homepage for the monetarists, the money supply being the variable that actually moves inflation and the economy. Data should be timely, not reproduced a month after release.

1.34m households sit on the social housing waiting list, but the verified floor of acute need is just 130,000–338,000. Read →

Norway’s exit tax didn’t stop wealth leaving — it just exported it: 261 left in 2022, 254 in 2023. Read →

Britain opted out of direct equity instruments when it rejoined Horizon Europe, so buying into the EU’s €5bn Scale Up Fund would likely need a treaty change. Read →

A 60% marginal rate hidden between £100,000 and £125,140 — the case for one rate, one generous allowance, no cliff edges. Read →

The inaugural CPAC Great Britain takes place 16–18 July 2026 at The InterContinental London, The O2, Greenwich. For the first time, the world’s most influential conservative gathering is crossing the Atlantic, bringing together leading voices from the UK, the US and across Europe for three days of speeches, debates and ideas.

On the agenda: free speech, economic freedom, the threat of Islamism, pushing back against the establishment, and what it’s going to take to restore Britain.

On the evening of Friday 17 July, 500 guests will sit down for the Sir Winston Churchill Gala Dinner — a prestigious black-tie event in honour of Britain’s greatest wartime leader. Tickets include Gold and Silver VIP options with premium access across all three days.